Handicapping Your Shot At a Top Business School

by John A. Byrne on

The most common question MBA-wannabes are asking right now: “What are my chances of getting into a top-ranked business school?”

As would-be applicants pore over the raw stats and acceptance numbers of their dream schools, they’re sizing up their own odds of getting into a Harvard or Stanford, Columbia or Chicago, Kellogg or Tuck. And they’re making the inevitable calculations to answer the question: Should I invest the time and energy to apply this year?

Do you have what might be called “nosebleed stats” likely to open the doors to a top school? Or did you goof off during your undergrad years and worry about whether your work experience offsets your low GPA? Did your undergraduate degree get stamped at the right institution for an elite grad school? And do you work for a “sexy” or “dull” company that is not a feeder into the best business schools?

To handicap the odds for various candidates, we turned to Sanford “Sandy” Kreisberg, founder of MBA admissions consulting firm HBSGuru, and asked him to analyze a half dozen composite profiles of typical MBA applicants. (If you include your own stats and characteristics in the comments, we’ll pick six of them and have Kreisberg assess your chances in a follow-up feature.)

The odds assume a serviceable application and a not damaging interview—with or without the guidance of an admissions consultant. “Consultants can teach you how to stand up straight,” says Kreisberg. “They can teach you how to stand on your toes. But at the end of the day, they can’t make you taller. What consultants most often do is protect you from making damaging mistakes while making sure your core message is delivered. The schools themselves have evolved X-ray vision about what they are looking for, although they rarely reveal those traits fully.“

Indeed, as Kreisberg’s analysis on each composite profile will show below, the schools often apply different standards to different numbers and backgrounds.

Here’s his lowdown:

Mr. Perfect

  • 750+ GMAT
  • 3.8 Grade Point Average
  • Ivy League Undergraduate Degree
  • Work experience at Goldman Sachs or McKinsey & Co.
  • Extracurricular includes alumni involvement and very active participation in an ethnic identity organization

Odds of Success

Harvard Business School: 85%
Stanford: 80%
Wharton: 90%
Tuck: 95%
Kellogg: 95%

Sandy’s Analysis: “The biggest risk this person has of not getting into HBS or Stanford is screwing up the interview, especially at HBS where the interview counts. (It does not count at Stanford in any meaningful way.) I am assuming the recommendations are in line and this applicant does not have a secret hater out there. HBS and Stanford, of course, love to reject kids like this, just so they can say they do. But they rarely do.

“Another danger, though rare, is just going a bit weird on the application through a combination of odd and unsupported goals, annoying and naïve enthusiasms, or just plain stupidity. Stanford could reject a kid like this if the ‘what matters most to you’ essay is a blatant and unreflective brag sheet.

“As to Wharton, Tuck and Kellogg, the issue is not blowing the interview and the related issue of convincing them that you are not using them as safety schools. If this kid really wants to go to Kellogg, he should apply very early. Otherwise, they will make the guess that the applicant is somehow toxic to Harvard, Stanford and Wharton.”

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  • vivk

    Hi – I have 10 yrs work ex and done part time mba from IIM Bangalore. I wish to pursue a full time from HBS, Wharton or stanford. Does having an existing mba come in way of doing fulltime ? how is it seen by Top B schools. Any idea ?

  • ausdenbergen

    GMAT of 730, GPA of 3.8 from a Midwestern state university, three years work experience as an auditor for a Big Four firm, will have three years experience for a large civil society NGO at the time of application. Extensive variety of extracurricular activities during undergrad (greek life, music, honors organizations, other student leadership positions); post-grad, volunteer regularly for a women’s health rights organization and have continued doing music for personal enjoyment. Already speak one foreign language fluently, am going back to school part-time in the fall to start learning a second foreign language (have been told I am gifted with languages and pick them up rather quickly). Looking to apply to INSEAD, HBS (preferably dual program with Kennedy), Booth, and Berkeley. What are my shots? What else can I do in the next couple of years to improve my chances (already plan to re-take GMAT, expecting to score higher)?

  • CR

    - 750 GMAT
    - 3.5 Undergrad GPA – Mechanical Engineering – a state university in India
    - 3.33 Grad School GPA – Mechanical Engineering – LSU
    - 4 years of work experience @ SLB – world’s largest oil-field services company – as a Mechanical Engineer
    - 1 year of work experience @ KLAC – leading semi-conductor capital equipment company – as a Product Engineer (2 years by the time I plan to apply)
    - Extra curricular activities: Founder of website/discussion forum for Indian students aspiring for higher studies in the US, member @ current employer’s Toastmaster’s club, volunteer @ a local SFO Bay Area Indian entrepreneurship forum
    - 30 year old Indian male

  • Jimmy


    750 GMAT

    4.0/4.0 average Master of Mathematics (Business track)

    4.0/4.0 average Master of Economics

    2.2/4.0 GPA BS Chemistry

    Went the entrepreneurial route and established a top 5 importation-based company in the Philippines.

  • http://www.billdaus.com Bill

    GMAT: 730 AWA: 5.5
    BS Comp Eng from UVA – 2.7
    ME Sys Eng from UVA – 3.27
    Work – 4 years large engineering contractor, 2 years start-up company, 2 years small engineering firm, several entrepreneurial efforts on the side
    Extra – undergrad: none, after: company and alumni sports teams, fundraising for charity by participating in endurance sports (e.g. Marathon)
    white male

    I am aware I wasted my undergrad years, should I address that in the optional essays on all my applications? Is there any shot of a top school with such a low undergrad GPA even though I’ll be out of school for 9 years by the time I start my MBA?

  • G. David

    770 GMAT
    B.A. Economics from BYU (Provo) – 3.72
    Minors in Business and Spanish

    Work – 2 years with a fast-growing startup (am currently Director of Operations); will have 3 years experience by program start date

    Extra – two-year service mission in Spain, Spanish language fluency, highest award at Model UN competition in New York, Eagle Scout

    I’m a white male from a rural town in Idaho. None of my friends or family have, as far as Harvard is probably concerned, gone anywhere or done anything, which means I have no political or business connections. What will likely be the weakest part of my application? How can I best try to strengthen that?

  • Andrew Luther

    I enlisted in the Army National Guard immediately after high school and began college at Appalachian State (first generation college student from rural Mississippi). After deploying with the Army, I transferred to Duke University where I graduated with a 3.4 (GMAT is 700).

    Immediately after college, I went to work for the consulting company CGI Group before accepting a job at Accenture (where I currently am). During this entire time, I have continued to serve in the Army National Guard (currently with 6 years of service).

    Extracurricular: Freelance writer for several dozen magazines. In addition to a deployment to the middle east, I have also deployed to support public relations missions in Korea, engineering operations in Jamaica, and information operations in Africa. I am also a modern dancer and writer for a local Washington DC dance company.

  • Ms. Asian Military

    Hi Sandy. Can you please evaluate my candidacy to HBS?

    GMAT: 630
    Undergrad (Engineering Degree-Non Ivy) GPA: 2.9
    First generation Asian immigrant/Female/28 years old
    Extracurricular: Two engineering societies

    Work: Great resume which shows the progression of responsibilities throughout naval career. Naval Officer for 4 years managing military construction/leading a minimum of 20 enlisted personnel. Two deployment sites. Before joining the Navy, I worked for my parents’ business for over a decade being a translator (first to speak English in my family). I am also the first to apply to grad school in my family.

    I’m worried my low GPA/GMAT scores will eliminate any chances of my getting accepted into HBS. Can you please evaluate? Thank you!

  • Drizzle

    1530 GRE
    3.42 Grade Point Average
    Istudy statistics and econ, minor in math at University of Washington
    Work experience at China’s top 3 insurance company( world top 500) for internship, university cafe assistant
    Extracurricular includes university based student organized leadership program, representative at UW student association and very active participation in community services

    want to apply for HBS 2+2 program

  • AP

    Does working at Citigroup impact the chances of getting into a top bschool negatively?

    750 GMAT
    3.2 GPA from Stony Brook university in Elec engg
    6 years at Citi in derivatives technolgoy, with excellent track record
    part time entrepreneurial ventures to talk about, with limited success

  • http://poetsandquants.com/members/jbyrne/ John A. Byrne


    Not at all. Citigroup tends to be a major feeder school to the top MBA programs and is thought of very highly by admission officers.

  • Matthew


    I recently scored very strong on the GRE (Q800 V690) and am applying only to dual programs such as YaleMBA/Forestery, DukeMBA/MEM, MichiganErbInstitute, UC Boulder dual MBA/EVNS and maybe standford programs, mostly because I am looking to focus on Energy programs.

    But my concern is that I went to a small very interdisciplinary school in Washington, studied mostly Chemistry and have been working in at startups, albeit in the renewable energy field for the last 5+ years starting in the technical but slowly working my way into strategy and business development, but in true startup fashion wearing all hats in between. Can you give me a little insight, since I am definitely not the traditional applicant.

  • http://poetsandquants.com/members/jbyrne/ John A. Byrne


    All these schools see plenty of non-traditional applicants. The fact that you’re applying to these dual-degree programs will likely get you special attention by admissions. So not to worry. Go for it. Good luck to you.

  • Simon Chu

    Thx a lot John, I’ve been reading all your blogs here, really intelligent writings. Tuck is one of my dream schools too, Just a quick assessment for me would be great

    Mr Greenpeacer

    750 GMAT
    3.2 Under 3.6 Graduate
    Earned an engineering degree at top university in China, a master in environmental in a top Canadian University
    28 years old, Canadian Citizen
    Worked in a boutique consulting firm for a year. Has been working for Greenpeace Canada for 3 years ever since, active project organizer, lots of leadership stories, steady progress, decent extracurriculars
    Career goal: Environmental NGO in China
    Concern: Greenpeace’s evil and aggressive impression

    Target schools:


    Thanks very much!

  • ARUN

    GMAT – 760
    GPA – 77 SCALE 100





  • Miller

    Sandy, Could you please evaluate my chances at HBS, Stanford, Northwestern, Duke, NYU, and Michigan?

    - 730 GMAT (47 Q / 44 V)
    - 3.45 Undergrad GPA – Public Policy and Markets and Management – Duke
    - 4 years of work experience at GE Capital – Started in GE’s Financial Management Program (2 years), accepted a role on the GE Capital risk analytics team for a 1 year project to revamp GE’s stress testing and regulatory communication; currently an Associate on GE’s leveraged finance team (Sponsor Finance)
    - Extra curricular activities: Co-founded a non-profit entrepreneurship at Duke that coordinated and sponsored student internships at non-profits around the U.S.; Various volunteer work; College club athletics
    - 26 year old white male from North Carolina (currently working in NYC)

  • Andy R

    HI John

    What is the opinion of a job at Cisco Systems in the adcoms view at top B schools? I am yet to take my GMAT but wanted to know how does Cisco match up with the likes of Microsoft, IBM or other tech companies ( certainly not apple or google). My targets are Stern, Duke, UNC.


  • http://poetsandquants.com/members/jbyrne/ John A. Byrne


    Very well. Cisco’s a big brand, a major Silicon Valley player, and recruits MBAs. While some of the luster it had earlier is gone, it’s still should be an asset to your application, especially to the East Coast schools you cite. Good luck.

  • Undergrad Student

    Hey John,

    Do you mind an article of Undergrad students could do right now to position themselves well for a MBA down the road?

    Similarly, it would be nice if you did the “ideal candidate” for a school (not Minority/Olympic Winner but more the average candidate, if there’s one, that’s likely to be accepted at the school)

  • http://poetsandquants.com/members/jbyrne/ John A. Byrne

    Undergrad student,

    Very good idea. I’ll order that up.

  • http://poetsandquants.com/members/kriz2k11/ Krishna

    Hi John,

    I would be in the Twin Brothers category from India..:)

    But i have been to IBM-India(2 YEARS) and is currently working in VISA-Singapore (full time position for last 2 years.)

    A GMAT score of 720 ..and GPA of 3.5(from an Indian State University- can be compared to National Institutes Of technology..)

    What are my odds in getting in one of the top B-Schools?? Of-course , these schools look for many other things ..essays…the story i got to sell ..and other things..STILL!!

  • RSS

    Hi John,
    I am from India and I need a favor from you.
    Is there a tool or methodology that you can come up with to convert (at least approximately) the Indian Ivy Schools’ GPA into US GPA. I have heard that it is not a direct conversion from a scale of 10 to a scale of 4.
    For instance, one of my friends who is from an average college in India with score in 60s (60+%) told me his UG score stod at 3.4 after conversion from his BSchool.
    It will be of great help to a lot of Indian applicants if you can come up with a tool at least for the top Indian colleges/Universities (IITs, NITs, BITS, Anna University, BHU, IISc and the like).

    Thank you in advance.

  • TrailBlazer

    First Generation College Graduate from the United States Naval Academy
    3.2 GPA double major Economics and Political Science (BS)
    2 years on Varsity Crew team
    President of the Astronomy Club
    Expected GMAT 680 minimum (720 hopefully)

    One out of 18 women chosen to be the first in the history of the United States Navy to break into one of the last male only fields in the country: submarining.

    Graduate of the Navy’s Officer Nuclear Power program.

    4 years work experience as an officer in the United States Navy.

    I plan either starting or becoming largely involved in a charity organization focusing on improving children’s education in the U.S. prior to applying.

  • mb

    710 Gmat
    3.5 GPA for Masters degree in Industrial & Systems engineering (focus on process improvement & statistical analysis) and Masters degree in electrical engineering (microelectronics thesis) both from northern illinois university
    1320 GRE score
    Undergrad: Electronics and communication engineering from indian university. (not great GPA)
    ~3 yrs experience as a Sr.process improvement engineer at fortune 500 electronics manufacturing companies.
    Started own consulting company focused on utilizing process improvement techniques to small business (moderately successful)
    28 yrs old male indian origin living in the USA.
    Preferred schools: Harvard, Stanford, Wharton, Northwestern, Sloan, Booth
    Post MBA goal: top tier management consulting firm

  • Ritz Chu

    720 GMAT
    3.16 GPA in Management Engineering (honors course where top 20% in the entrance exam are the only ones accepted and only 60% passing rate)at #1 University in the Philippines
    Graduated in the top 20% of the whole batch.

    Passed the CFA level 1 exam placing in the top bracket in all topics (passing rate at 30%)

    Worked as an AVP in the number one onion distribution company in the Philippines for one year optimizing both financial and operations and eliminating waste by 40% all this while under the load of debt to asset ratio of 60%

    Now working as the COO of the company after the first year and managing the expansion of the company and dealing with CEOs of different countries serving as the suppliers for the different materials of the cold storage facility.

    The background of the experience is under the cloud of constant power struggle by the board of directors and the owners of the company as well as security concerns due to shooting incidents involving my cousin who is an employee of the company.

    23 years old, Minority Chinese.

  • Swasikov

    Dear John,

    If would be great if you can evaluate my profiles.

    710 GMAT (Q50, V 35)
    3.02 Engineering at Thailand’s best university
    TOEFL 103

    Work in Thailand leading petrochemical company for 4 years as Sales executive and Strategic Analyst.

    Activities: Classical Pianist, Guitarist, Piano teacher, University’s Chorus Conductor and concert master.

    Age 26.

    Thank you in advance for your evaluation.

  • Believer……….

    Dear John,

    Thanks for this great Site… and the information that you have provided.
    I am Currently working in India and have been Admitted for Masters(Informations System Management) in University of Rochester(Simon Bschool) for Fall 2012.
    I wish to pursue an MBA three years down the line.

    My profile is
    2.9 GPA :(
    2.5 Yrs Experience in Siemens & Reliance Industries in Project management in SAP Business.
    Good Community Services(Human Right India) and exceptional Sports Certificates.
    Cerified in ITIL,CISA,CCNA, ISO20K and SixSigma.

    I just wanted to know how Do i Build My Career path and what else i can add to my profile so that by the time I am ready for GMAT I have a strong profile as a MBA Applicant.

    Would really appreciate If you could give a few tip to enhance My profile.

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  • Akhila Nandgopal

    I have gone through all the profiles and none really fit me very well.

    GMAT:750Undergrad GPA:3.46
    State School, International student turned resident
    Copious amounts of extra-curricular activities and Volunteering
    3yrs of experience in a HBS feeder company(Danaher)
    Female Electrical Engineer

  • Madhumitha Aravanan

    Female, 25 years old
    Undergrad:  National Institute of technology (8.2GPA.. how do I convert it to a 4.0 system??)
    Work ex: 4 years (2 years at Maruti Suzuki as an automotive body design engineer and 2 years as a design trainee in Suzuki Motor Corp)
    Extra curricular activities:Won a couple of competitions while at Maruti, have been the joint secretary of Computer society of India at college and the hostel joint secretary (don’t know if this counts)
    Done a couple of concerts in both Japan and India… but onlor 2 months, planning to do more of that.
    Want to know if I have any c

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  • Mehrnoosh

    Hi John,
    I read this article today and i have a lot of questions on my mind but i just want to ask one of them now. Can you answer this:
    What happens to international Students?

    With all the odds and profiles that you put here, no international student has a chance for these schools.

    For example myself. I graduated in finance from the best school in my country but with GPA of 15.1/ 20 (our top student graduated with GPA under 19). I started working part-time in very small companies in sophomore year from auditing then moved on to accounting (no one would hire a finance undergrad unless you would count on nepotism). In less than 2years i had to run the whole finance/accounting/…. in the company by my own.Then i was the CFO of an international NGO.
    Less than 6month after i graduated, i started a consulting firm that works around entrepreneurship and helping small or starting businesses, with a few of my friends and been here for almost 4 years.

    It’s a small business, i don’t make much but i almost run a company.I do a lot of work in different aspects from accounting to human resource to budgeting. In comparison to my classmates i’m decades ahead.They have junior positions or at most work in some holding company as analyst.
    There are only a few international companies here that are mostly communication/mobile companies like Nokia or siemens and they usually hire people with experiences more than 10 years

    As you can see, there are no IBM/Microsoft/Google nor Goldman Sach. Even the university rankings are less than US state schools.

    The way you described i have no chance at any of these schools or even the second tier or B ranked schools.

    So what should a person like me do?
    Is there a different measurement for international students?
    How am i supposed to compete with a Harvard or UC-berkely or even michigan state graduate?
    Should i give up entirely?
    (BTW: My dream school is Wharton and then Michigan& Kellogg)

    Please just help me.If these are impossible let me know so i can adjust my expectations

  • TheBornLeader

    With all due respect, you can’t estimate chances of success of an applicant based only on his numbers and his past affiliations. B-School admission is a holistic process that will look at the trend of the promotion as a whole, your past achievements, your present situation and the aspirations you have for your future. The evaluations above are missing a very important point: the career aspirations of the candidates. If everybody aspires to be a banker or a management consultant then even a 750+ GMAT won’t necessarily give you a foot in. Your career aspirations have better to be realistic, tangible and inline with your past experience, your demonstrated interests and your proven potential (leadership, network, intellectual, etc…). Having realistic career aspirations, a good plan of success with possibly an important social impact rather than just a huge pay slip can drastically change the game even for somebody with less than 630 GMAT.

    In other words, do no trust number based profile evaluations or school proposals on some random forums, apply with your heart to the schools that you love and where you think you will be a good fit. The Life smiles to the Audacious.

  • GR

    Hi Sandy,
    I have BS in Electrical(India)-3.5 GPA, MS in Electrical(US)-3.5 GPA, yet to take GMAT. Average extra curricular activities, what are chances and how will make it to a top school, I have two year work exp n I am still working for a firm in US. Would greatly appreciate your evaluation.

  • Soccer

    Male. Indian. Age: 25.
    720 GMAT.Indian Institute of Technology. GPA: 7.75/10
    Work Experience: 2 years (Analytics in Reinsurance Brokerage Firm)
                               1 year (Analytics and Financial Reporting in Insurance Firm)
                               1 year part-time and 0.25 years full time (Leading and Expanding a part-time family  business – online goods trading (B2B) – doubled profits last year)

    Extra Currics: Captain of College Soccer Team.
                         Improvisational Theatre Group.
                         Tie-up with NGO to donate part of proceeds from online goods trading business.

    Future Aspirations: To Break into Strategy Consulting (try for MBB) to gain diverse industry knowledge and holistic business knowledge. Come back and expand the online business some years later.

  • Bdub

    Economics from Liberal Arts college

    3.7 GPA

    Student Body President

    Associate at an Impact oriented Venture Capital Fund

    Worked as Controller(COO/CFO) for an early stage start up with annual revenues around $9m

    Top Schools:






  • Bdub

    I forgot to include my GMAT score of 740

  • PR

    Hi John, thanks for the great article. What do you think are the chances of getting into Harvard with the following

    - 740 GMAT
    - First Class Degree (3.75 GPA equivalent)
    - 4 Year Masters in Mechanical Engineering from top 5 UK school
    - Work experience at Goldman Sachs, Ernst and Young, Barclays, Royal Dutch Shell
    - President of finance society, National Team for Swimming, social entrepreneurial society team leader

    Thanks in advance!

  • Susanne Pfahl

    Take me, you won´t feel sorry about this decition!

  • Ms Military Transition

    To throw a another woman in the mix (thanks for including a few in your article), please consider me for your analysis!

    Active Duty Air Force for 7 years of service culminating in technical program management
    Undergrad GPA 3.1 Mechanical Engineering Small Tech School, MA
    1st Masters (distance) Entrepreneurship GPA 4.0
    2nd Masters Engineering Adminstration Virginia Tech GPA 3.98
    GMAT 720, good involvement/awards in school and career

    No I don’t need another masters but want to transition from technical focus in the military to private equity/venture in the public sector and think I need HBS to do so. Do you have a guess at MIT Sloan chances also?

    Thanks so much for your consideration!

  • tiara

    Undergraduate from an ivy with a gpa of 3.1
    Top 200 WTA ranked tennis player
    Worked in marketing with Fortune 100 companies for 3 years
    GMAT 680
    What are my chances of getting into a top business school

  • Sharm


  • Sharm

    Hi Sandy,
    I am an Indian female. I want to know if FMCG work experience is viewed positively by the adcom. I work as the Supply chain manager for a major category in this company(think Unilever, p&g)

  • Jon Lee

    I assume we’re clear that in all cases, the candidate must also be under 26 years old, no?

  • BE real.

    most important that is not here is income. Where you work matters, but its the bottom line that matters more. If you are wealthy or have a good paying job. They’ll take you to boost their stats. Slightly racist/sexist article but lol aint that the truth :)

  • Piyush

    Hello John,

    Just saw your Handicapping series, will really appreciate if you could asses my profile please.

    GPA – 4.0
    GMAT – 730
    Age – 29

    Experience – 7.5 years
    Present – Audio Lead – Blackberry – Ottawa
    Sr. Audio Design SonyEricsson – Beijing, Sweden
    R&D Engg – SFX – Edinburgh, U.K.

    Very wide experience in manufacturing, Design, project management, HW, SW, Mechnical, tooling, testing etc…
    Worked on lead Flagship BB and SE products.
    2 International Patents to improve Audio Technology

    -Dip. in Mechanical Engineering – LTIT – Mumbai
    -BEng (Hons) – Mechatronics – Edinburgh Napier University, U.K.

    Goal – Corporate Strategy.
    After MBA – come back to Telecom Industry and see one of the medium size firms growing. Atleast this is what i have in my mind.

    Target Schools – Harvard, Wharton, Columbia, MIT (any suggestions for Business Schools for Corporate Strategy ! )

    Peace Ambassador – UPF (Universal Peace Fed), Dir. Marketing n Communication for Non-Profit Org. – Festival of India Ottawa.

    I am not sure where my profile falls in you assessment but i do have a concern reg my age. I have read a great deal about it and 30 yrs is like a taboo age and once you cross that Business schools get less and less interested to invest in you. In my defense, all i want to say is that I did not want to do an MBA until I had a solid foundation, in-depth understanding of various different sectors of a company and how they work together. And now at this stage of my career i think i do understand telecom industry fairly well and therefore want to move to the higher level.

    Any other pointers,,,,,,,,,,, will really appreciate your assessment.



  • Roberto


    What do you think are my chances to get in to my top choices:

    Harvard, Stanford, Wharton, Columbia, McCombs

    First Generation College Student
    Male 26 years old
    GMAT: 710
    3.2 GPA ,Degree in Economics and Business From The University of Texas (Public Ivy)
    3 years work experience at Goldman Sachs
    Involved with Alumni Program from UT and several Hispanic and underprivileged programs around the community.

    Thank you.

  • yog

    Hi John

    I am a Indian Military Engineer in my early 40′s. wish to enroll for a full time MBA course in USA for career transition from Military to Corporate. does it make sense to enroll for a MBA course at 45 of age…?

  • Solomon Neuhardt

    How about a 3.6 from the University of Montana/ :) JD from Montana also. Middle aged lawyer and no GMAT?

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