Wage Over Lottery: Trump Administration Proposes Sweeping Overhaul Of H‑1B Visa Selection

The Trump administration has proposed a fundamental change to how H‑1B visas are allocated, replacing the existing random lottery with a weighted selection system based on wage levels. 

According to the proposal published Tuesday (September 23) in the Federal Register by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, registrants with higher offered wages would receive better odds of selection than those offered lower pay.

The rule, titled “Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking to File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions,” would assign each registration to one of four wage levels, using data from the Department of Labor’s Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) system. Under the proposed process, registrations associated with the highest wage level — Level IV — would be entered into the selection pool four times. Level III would receive three entries, Level II two, and Level I a single entry. The change would apply both to the regular H‑1B cap and the advanced degree exemption.

The proposal is the second major move affecting the H‑1B program in under a week. Just days ago, the administration issued a proclamation establishing a $100,000 fee on new H‑1B petitions as a condition of entry to the United States. The fee announcement initially caused confusion among employers and visa holders, some of which was mitigated when the administration clarified that it would apply only to newly filed petitions, not to renewals or transfers.

WEIGHTED SYSTEM REPLACES RANDOM LOTTERY

According to DHS, the new weighted approach to H-1B allocations is designed to encourage employers to offer higher wages and to prioritize higher-compensated roles in the visa selection process. Currently, all properly submitted H‑1B registrations have an equal chance of being selected through a randomized process regardless of the wage level or job type.

The administration’s proposal builds on a similar rule introduced near the end of Trump’s first term, which also sought to prioritize H‑1B petitions based on wages. That rule was withdrawn by the Biden administration in 2021. As Bloomberg’s Andrew Kreighbaum reports, the newly proposed rule revives that structure, with some modifications, and reflects the administration’s broader strategy to reform employment-based visa programs under a “Buy American, Hire American” framework.

The proposed rule acknowledges that workers across all four wage levels would remain eligible for selection, though with differing odds based on their wage classification. DHS emphasized in the filing that the change is intended to support the original purpose of the H‑1B program — to bring in highly skilled foreign workers — while also improving integrity in the selection process.

LEGAL CHALLENGES EXPECTED

Kreighbaum reports that business groups and immigration attorneys have previously raised legal concerns about wage-based selection models. Critics argue that using wage levels as a proxy for skill may violate the Immigration and Nationality Act, which requires H‑1B petitions to be selected “in the order in which they are filed,” unless demand exceeds supply. Bloomberg notes that similar objections were raised in response to the 2020 version of the rule, which was never implemented.

The wage-based system also revisits a recent overhaul made by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) to the H‑1B registration process. In 2023, the agency moved to assign selection odds based on unique beneficiaries rather than individual employer registrations, in an effort to crack down on fraudulent or duplicative submissions. The new proposal would retain that structure but overlay the wage-based weighting on top of it.

According to the proposal, DHS believes that higher wages are “a reasonable proxy” for skill level and job complexity. However, critics cited by Bloomberg warn that this approach could harm early-career professionals, including recent graduates of U.S. colleges and universities, who typically fall into the lower end of the wage spectrum despite meeting the “specialty occupation” requirement.

NEXT STEPS & TIMELINE

The proposed rule was officially published for public inspection on September 23, 2025. As with other DHS rulemakings, it will be subject to a public comment period before final implementation. The agency has not yet set a formal effective date, but if finalized in time, the new selection process could apply to the next H‑1B cap season in 2026.

For now, the implications of the proposal remain contingent on timing, implementation logistics, and legal challenges. According to Bloomberg, the administration has signaled it will move quickly to finalize the rule alongside other immigration-related changes affecting employment-based visas.

As with past attempts to reform the H‑1B system (see here and here), much will depend on whether the proposal survives legal scrutiny and when it takes effect. But in the meantime, one thing is clear: for thousands of international business school graduates hoping to stay and work in the U.S., how much they’re paid may soon matter more than ever.

DON’T MISS THE MISSING VOICE IN THE H-1B DEBATE: INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS

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