Handicapping Your Odds of MBA Success

 

Mr. French I-Banker

• 740 GMAT
• 3.58 GPA
• Undergraduate degree in finance and marketing from a B-school in Paris; graduated as valedictorian of class
• Work experience includes two years at a boutique investment bank in New York specializing in power and utilities (three alumni from my school worked at the bank and all went to Tuck for their MBAs; boss is a Harvard undergrad and Harvard Law School grad who has taught at the B-school, and has connections on the Harvard University board)
• Extracurricular involvement at school part of a student organization that welcomes U.S. exchange students; also founded a club on the GMAT in semester abroad program at Emory University
• Goal: To work in asset management for a hedge fund, private equity firm or mutual fund
• 24-year-old French Caucasian male

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 40+%

Stanford: 20% to 30%

Wharton: 40% to 50+%

Columbia: 45% to 50+%

MIT: 40% to 50+%

UCLA: 50+%

NYU: 50+%

Cornell: 50+%

Texas: 50+%

USC: 50+%

Sandy’s Analysis: Lots to like including being valedictorian of a select B-school in France and 740 GMAT—be sure to stress the valedictorian part, since 3.58 GPA is usually not valedictorian numbers here in the grade-inflated USA. The fact that someone at your boutique has connections at HBS could come into play. Let’s just consider that an outlier and deal with what we got. Given firm history and Tuck’s preferences for charming (I assume) banker types, you got a real good shot there, and you might like it. Most kids do. It’s worth a trip to feel the merchandise. That will give you a real feeling about the environs.

I notice you did not list that as an option, but it’s worth doing so. At H/S/W you are in the lottery. I’m not particularly seeing this as Stanford, mainly because there’s nothing super-duper driving you in, and coming from no-nam-ish New York IB won’t help and there is just not much ‘save-the-world’ jive in your story as told to us, if you left that out, well . . . I could change my mind.

HBS will be a toss up, and you could be a case where app and essay execution really count. You need to come up with some stories there that are more interesting than anything you listed in your short profile. Wharton should be do-able with serviceable execution of their application, which is due out any day now, possibly even before Fete Nationale.

MIT will go for your solid stats, and they are always looking for brainy people plus banking and asset management are not (yet) dirty words there. They almost are at H and S. Other schools you mention, UCLA, NYU, Cornell, Texas-Austin, and USC should be real solid and just a matter of convincing them you want to attend.