Trump Effect: 40% Of International Candidates Now Less Likely To Study In U.S.

When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, most international MBA hopefuls said the election wouldn’t change their plans.

Within months, that changed dramatically.

By December 2025, 40% of non-U.S. graduate management candidates said they were less likely to study in the United States under a Trump presidency, according to a report from the Graduate Management Admission Council titled The Great Re-Routing Of Global Business Talent, issued February 24, based on data released in December 2025.

The numbers show sentiment translating into enrollment losses: In August 2025, total new international enrollments across U.S. higher education fell 19% year over year. Among students from India – the single largest pipeline into many MBA programs – the drop was 45%. Declines were also recorded from China, South Korea, Iran, Syria, and Nigeria.

Source: GMAC

THE U.S. SLIDE

GMAC’s data show that U.S. study preference among non-U.S. candidates fell from 57% in January 2025 to 42% by December – a 15-percentage-point drop in a single year. The decline coincided with a temporary suspension of visa interviews in summer 2025, slower processing times, rising formal denials, and broader immigration-curbing proposals. Uncertainty surrounding the H-1B visa adds another layer of hesitation for career-focused candidates.

Business schools are feeling the impact directly. Two-thirds of programs in the Americas reported declines in international enrollment for fall 2025. Among those schools, 26% reported declines of 15% or more.

The yield damage is especially pronounced from India. Nearly 90% of schools in the Americas said the largest drop-off between admitted students and actual matriculation came from Indian candidates. Almost 50% cited similar drop-offs from China and Nigeria – suggesting that visa friction is converting admits into no-shows.

Source: GMAC

THE GLOBAL SHIFT

In fall 2025, 54% of business schools in Asia and the Pacific Islands reported increases in international enrollment compared with fall 2024; by contrast, two-thirds of programs in the Americas reported international enrollment declines, and 26% said those declines were 15% or greater.

Europe, excluding the United Kingdom, also posted gains in international applications in 2025, even as Canada, the UK, and the United States recorded net declines. In Canada, the introduction of an international student enrollment cap in January 2024 was followed by sharp drops in study permit applications and approvals across all education levels, with new enrollments falling well below the cap itself. The federal government set the 2024 cap at roughly 360,000 new study permits — about 35% fewer than in 2023 — and has since moved to extend and tighten those limits through 2027, reducing both the number of applications processed and the approvals granted.

In January 2025, 57% of non-U.S. graduate management candidates said they preferred the U.S. as a study destination; by December, that figure had fallen to 42%. Over the same period, more candidates reported considering programs in Western Europe and parts of Asia. The overall demand for graduate management education remains steady, but the distribution of that demand is changing.

See the GMAC report here.

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