Another Round 1 Slump? Experts See Opportunity Ahead – For The Right MBA Candidates

BLACKMAN: A FAMILIAR BOOM-AND-BUST CYCLE

Stacy Blackman points out that MBA applications have historically run counter-cyclical to the economy. When the job market softens, people go back to school, which is why 2008 and 2020 were both big application years. This time, many would-be applicants are stuck in a holding pattern instead.

“They’re unsure about the job market, about AI’s impact on their careers, and about whether this is the right moment to step away from a paycheck,” she says.

She adds that uncertainty around immigration and visas has been a problem for international applicants, and that a loud wave of “is the MBA still worth it?” commentary this year has added to the hesitation. None of it alarms her. “Like business and the economy generally, admissions has booms and busts,” Blackman says. “We’ve seen this kind of cycle over and over before.”

‘I ABSOLUTELY PUSH BACK’

Blackman, who earned her MBA at Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management, has little patience for the narrative that the degree has lost its value. “I absolutely push back,” she says. “That message almost always comes from people outside the experience who don’t really know what the degree does.”

A top MBA, she argues, still delivers a lifelong network, a toolkit, predictably higher income, and a brand that pays off for decades, not just at a graduate’s first post-MBA job. “The people I see questioning it are going for ‘hot takes’ and are rarely the ones who went through it,” she says.

Cambridge Judge professor Chris Marquis’s recent New York Times essay, I Teach at a Business School. It’s Time to Shut Them Down, sparked a lively discussion in her own business school alumni chat, Blackman says. With her classmates’ permission, she summarized their main points in a LinkedIn post. (Marquis recently told P&Q what he would build instead.)

OPPORTUNITY, WITH A DOSE OF REALISM

Blackman’s message to Round 2 and Round 3 applicants: “opportunity, with a dose of realism.” For strong, legitimate candidates, she says, this could be a very good year to apply, since a smaller pool at the top schools may mean less competition for seats.

But schools are not lowering their standards. The bar for academics, leadership, and a clear, compelling story is exactly where it has always been. “A softer year won’t get an unqualified candidate in the door,” Blackman says. “It rewards strong candidates who show up prepared while others sit on the sidelines.”

She also stresses that the impact won’t be the same across the board. The top programs will be fine, she says, because their brands, outcomes, and alumni networks are durable.

“The schools that should be more concerned,” she says, “are the lower-ranked programs without that pull. That’s where a sustained decline really hurts.”

EDINBURGH: VISA FEARS ‘MORE HYPE THAN REALITY’

Scott Edinburgh argues that some of the fears keeping applicants on the sidelines are overblown. “While some candidates are concerned about current or future visa policies, the concern is more hype than reality,” he says.

Every one of his firm’s international clients has been able to come to campus in the U.S. so far, he says, and he encourages applicants to think three years ahead, when a new administration will be in office. “We understand the concern, but the smart candidates will see the opportunity.”

The same goes for job-market jitters. Edinburgh, a Wharton MBA, says he earned his degree during a challenging job market and calls it “a fantastic time because it gives you the chance to hide out during a tricky job market and then graduate into an expanding market.”

AI AS A REASON TO GO, NOT TO WAIT

Edinburgh acknowledges that AI is a natural area of concern, but he sees it as an argument for the degree. “Savvy applicants recognize that AI is creating more need for MBA talent, not less,” he says.

As companies adopt new technologies, he explains, they need people who can connect AI to business strategy, even as they need fewer analyst-level employees. Edinburgh, who served six years on the board of the Association of International Graduate Admissions Consultants (AIGAC), says that on visits to top schools through the group’s conference over the past two years, he has seen business schools rapidly updating their curricula to prepare students to compete in the AI era.

‘ROUND 2 IS A GREAT TIME TO APPLY’

Taken together, Edinburgh says, all of those signals point in one direction. “Round 2 is a great time to apply!”

Candidates holding back because they don’t feel ready still have plenty of time to get a Round 2 application in, he adds, and many are more prepared than they think.

“A thoughtful, authentic story is more compelling than a perfect one, so avoid overthinking and unnecessary delays.”

COWARD: ‘I DON’T THINK THE SKY IS FALLING’

Barbara Coward, a former MBA admissions director who has worked in admissions offices on two continents and is the author of It’s Not About You: Insider Strategies for Elite MBA Applicants, has heard reports from both U.S. and European schools that application volume is significantly softer. “But that doesn’t signal the demise of the MBA,” she says.

In fact, she is seeing a robust pipeline for next year, with some candidates already looking ahead to the 2028–2029 cycle. “Just this morning, in fact, I spoke with someone targeting 2027–2028 Round 1 or 2 who plans to spend the next couple of months preparing for the GMAT,” Coward says.

She has also been asking prospective students why they are looking ahead rather than applying now. One answer that keeps coming up: AI. Where Edinburgh sees AI as a reason to go now, some of Coward’s prospects see it as a reason to wait and watch.

START EARLIER, BUILD STRONGER

For schools and the organizations that work with them, Coward says, the lesson is to connect with prospective applicants earlier in the funnel “and support them throughout their journey – even at the early readiness stage.” That was a key theme at the 2026 GMAC Test Prep Summit, which she says she attended this week.

For applicants, she sees an opportunity of a different kind. “There are plenty of resources available to help them start earlier, build stronger applications, and find the schools that are the right fit for them,” she says.

BODINE: ‘A MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY’

Paul Bodine, author of Great Applications for Business School and a fixture on P&Q’s lists of the most favorably reviewed MBA admission consultants, says Admitify hasn’t seen a slowdown. If a broader decline is under way, he blames “the intense geo-economic uncertainty of our current moment, which tends to smother risk-taking and optimism.” That includes optimism about applicants’ own career futures and about employers’ hiring plans.

His view of Round 3 is traditional. Bodine says he rarely recommends it unless an applicant has highly compelling reasons for skipping Rounds 1 and 2 and also has a distinctive, impressive profile.

But for Round 2 applicants, his advice is clear. “For Round 2 clients, I would say go for it – ‘moment of opportunity’ while others are frozen in the headlights,” Bodine says. There’s one condition: they should apply only if “they really personally need and want to be in business school next fall.”

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