Another Round 1 Slump? Experts See Opportunity Ahead – For The Right MBA Candidates

For weeks, the rumor has circulated among admissions insiders: Round 1 MBA applications to the top 15 to 20 U.S. business schools fell sharply this fall. Schools have yet to release official numbers. But the admissions consultants who work most closely with applicants to elite programs say the slowdown is real, and they have pointed advice for anyone weighing a Round 2 or Round 3 application.

“Yes, we saw a real Round 1 decline,” says Stacy Blackman, president of Stacy Blackman Consulting. “It showed up in our own pipeline, and it lines up with what I’m hearing in conversations with admissions directors at several top programs.” Blackman, who has advised MBA applicants for more than 25 years, calls it one of the more noticeable dips she has seen.

Caroline Diarte Edwards, co-founder and director of Fortuna Admissions and former director of admissions at INSEAD, hears the same message from the schools. In conversations with deans of admissions at top U.S. and international programs, she says, “it is clear that Round 1 was very slow.”

Petia Whitmore, founder of My MBA Path, goes further. She stresses that her information is anecdotal and that she can’t share her sources, but she says schools have been talking about “another double-digit decline for R1, YOY.”

A SECOND STRAIGHT DOWN YEAR?

If she’s right, the top schools are now in their second straight down year. In February, Poets&Quants reported that Round 1 and Round 2 data at multiple full-time programs pointed to declines of 20% to 30% last cycle, with international applicants accounting for the sharpest drop. Class profiles released this fall bear that out. UCLA Anderson School of Management, for one, saw applications fall 21% for its Class of 2028; MIT Sloan School of Management saw a 25% decline.

Not everyone sees cause for alarm. Paul Bodine, founder and president of Admitify, says flatly that his firm “is not seeing that decline.” Barbara Coward, founder of MBA 360 Admissions, has heard from schools that application volume is significantly softer, but she warns against overreacting. “Shouts of ‘Chicken Little’ are getting louder, but I don’t think the sky is falling,” she says.

Scott Edinburgh, founder of Personal MBA Coach, offers another explanation. Political and economic uncertainty is causing some applicants to hesitate, he says, so individual schools are “likely” seeing lower Round 1 volume. But candidates are also considering a broader list of programs, including international schools, which can thin the applicant count at any single school. GMAC data support part of that picture: international applications have been shifting away from the U.S. and toward Europe and Asia.

What’s behind the slump, and what should applicants do about it? Here’s what each consultant is seeing.

WHITMORE: ‘WE ARE DUE FOR A SECOND YEAR DOWN’

Whitmore, a former dean of MBA admissions at Babson College and former managing director of The MBA Tour, has worked in MBA admissions since 2009. She isn’t surprised by the decline. “We pretty much always experience two years up, two years down,” she says. “We are due for a second year down.” She outlined that pattern in her commentary on GMAC’s previous Application Trends Survey.

On top of that historical cycle, Whitmore sees two major drivers behind the declines both last cycle and this one. The first is uncertainty about post-MBA opportunities in the U.S. for international candidates. The second is broader concern about the degree’s return on investment, fed by reports of weaker employment outcomes for the last couple of graduating classes.

That ROI debate, she says, has many candidates concluding that only the most elite programs are worth it, with mindsets like “T15 only,” “M7 only,” or even “HSW or bust.”

“So there is a flight to the top in my experience,” Whitmore says. “It’s been in place for a number of years and it’s even more prominent the last couple of years.”

A BUSINESS THAT’S UP, NOT DOWN

Her own practice reflects that shift. Whitmore says she saw no decline at all. More candidates wanted to work with her comprehensively than last year, her business is up, and the quality of candidates has been “fantastic.”

She acknowledges that she runs an intentionally small shop, so it’s hard to draw broad conclusions. Still, she believes that as candidates aim higher, they are making a strategic decision to hire a top consultant to maximize their outcomes.

Last cycle also offered a surprise. Whitmore worked with a small handful of Round 3 candidates, something she rarely does, and they did very well, landing admits at multiple M7 schools along with scholarships, including an international candidate. That matched the Round 3 opening P&Q contributors flagged last winter as applications fell. “That tells us something about how the dynamics shifted last year,” she says. She suspects some of that may repeat this year, though MIT Sloan has dropped its Round 3 this cycle, joining Harvard Business School, which eliminated its final round in 2018.

‘THE CEILING MAY BE HIGHER’

For Round 2 and Round 3 applicants, Whitmore sees a unique opportunity – but only for those who are really strong. Candidates who once hoped at most for a T15 school might now have a realistic shot at the T10 or M7, she says, and the strongest will have better odds even at Harvard, Stanford, and Wharton.

One of her current clients has already received interview invitations from four of the six schools they applied to: Harvard Business School, Stanford GSB, Chicago Booth, and Columbia Business School. “I wouldn’t be surprised if they end up 6/6 once MIT and Wharton release interview invites,” she says. “That’s a pretty neat set of options to be looking at!”

And if the rumors hold, applicants could benefit in another way. “If R1 is indeed down as much as rumors claim, then schools will likely be more assertive with both acceptances and scholarships this year,” Whitmore says.

DIARTE EDWARDS: EXPECT A STRONGER ROUND 2

Caroline Diarte Edwards believes the slowdown is already easing. Based on conversations with a large number of applicants targeting the M7 and top 20 schools, she says, “it is evident that Round 2 will be stronger – not to the levels of two or three years ago, but a clear uptick from the past 12 months.”

She expects more international candidates to apply in Round 2, anticipating a more favorable climate for U.S. higher education and immigration policy after the November elections.

Diarte Edwards also sees the AI picture cutting both ways. Concern about the job market and the impact of AI has triggered a “job hugging” trend, with some potential candidates holding on to their current roles rather than risk leaving. But a growing number of talented young professionals recognize strong demand for MBAs who combine leadership skills and judgment with AI savvy, she says, “and they want to shape an exciting future rather than let AI happen to them.”

WHY THE HEADLINE NUMBERS MAY MISLEAD

Most of Fortuna’s clients target the very top programs and have been planning their route to business school for several years. Because they take a long-term view of the benefits and ROI, Diarte Edwards says, short-term conditions sway them less.

Her years running admissions at INSEAD also make her skeptical that a down year changes the odds much. Through the peaks and troughs in application volume, she says, the extra applications in peak years sometimes came from less well-prepared candidates. The school had a solid pipeline of strong applicants year after year regardless of the cycle, and the same is true at the top U.S. schools.

“So competition may be a little less stiff this season, but the real change in competitiveness is likely smaller than the headline application volume numbers suggest,” she says.

THE CASE AGAINST A ‘HAIL MARY’

In comments shared by Diarte Edwards, her Fortuna colleague and fellow co-founder Judith Silverman Hodara, who spent a decade in MBA admissions at Wharton, warns that a handful of opportunistic candidates may jump into the January round without enough thought or preparation, and those applicants may not be ready.

Fortuna generally advises them to take the time to strengthen their candidacy for fall 2027 rather than attempt “the Hail Mary” Round 3, which Hodara says rarely works at the very top U.S. schools because the pools remain highly competitive even with the shifts in application numbers.

“To me, applying to MBA programs is a lot like investing in the stock market,” Hodara says. “The longer-term view balances out, despite annual swings in the overall portfolio, so short-term decisions may not always be beneficial.”

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